Marc Fagel warns XRP’s Ripple vs. SEC settlement by Aug. 15 depends on appeals, despite community optimism for a $50M deal.
The Ripple vs SEC case, a high-profile litigation pending for years, is on the brink of its conclusion, with numerous individuals predicting a decision by August 15. The XRP community is anticipating a potential settlement as the status report deadline approaches and is holding its breath. Nevertheless, Marc Fagel, a former SEC attorney and seasoned securities litigator, provided a reality check by providing a glimpse into the SEC’s inner workings.
August 15th Deadline for Ripple vs SEC Case: Is a Settlement Possible?
As the status report deadline approaches, the XRP community is avidly anticipating the release of another significant development in the Ripple vs SEC case. As indicated in previous reports, the status report is due from both parties on August 15.
As the date approaches, the community remains optimistic about the possibility of an XRP lawsuit resolution. According to an X user, the likelihood of a resolution occurring on or before the August 15 status report deadline is high, with a predicted probability of 70-90%. He believes the settlement would likely include a $50 million penalty and no injunction.
Nevertheless, a former SEC lawyer, Marc Fagel, refuted the X user’s assertion, elucidating the reality behind the XRP lawsuit. He contended that the likelihood of a $50 million penalty and no injunction is nonexistent, as the court has already decided. His X post stated, “The probability of a $50 million penalty and no injunction is zero.” The court has already resolved that matter. I apologize.
Judge Torres’ rejection of the motion for an indicative judgment was a critical decision that could potentially conclude the lawsuit. With the $125 million penalty and injunction still in effect, there are no other alternatives.
In light of this development, counsel Fagel’s statement is particularly pertinent. Fagel disclosed in a previous post that Ripple had already paid the $125 million penalty in cash, as previously reported.
What is the next step in the Ripple case?
Ripple and the SEC jointly submitted a status report in June, requesting a provisional suspension of the appeals process. They have requested that the court postpone the appeals until August 15, 2025, at which point they will provide another status update.
Initially, it was widely assumed that this action was taken in anticipation of Judge Torres‘ favorable judgment on the indicative ruling. However, the judge’s rejection is expected to result in both parties officially withdrawing their appeals, with a substantial development imminent. According to Marc Fagel, a recently cited counsel, Ripple and the SEC are anticipated to withdraw their appeals within the next two months.
Additionally, Fagel reiterated his assertion, stating,
It can typically take 1-2 months for the SEC to approve an enforcement recommendation. The Torres ruling was on 6/26, so assuming it took a few days to put that recommendation together, it could happen any time in the next few weeks. But it’s a lot of speculation.
Fagel previously contended that the August 15 deadline is not directly associated with a potential settlement, which can occur without a specific timeline. Consequently, the settlement in the Ripple vs SEC case is contingent upon the withdrawal of appeals by both parties, rather than being linked to the August 15 deadline.
