Biden’s Gaffe Sparks Trading Frenzy on Polymarket

On the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, Joe Biden’s chances to withdraw from the contest increased to 50% following the debate and stabilized at 40%.

Joe Biden, the President of the United States, performed absolutely terribly during last week’s presidential debate.

He is being urged to resign by the editorial board of The New York Times, which is often a pillar of support for a Democratic White House. According to a CBS/YouGov poll, 72% of people think Biden has the mental capacity to be President.

This was a betting windfall for users of Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform.

As of Monday morning U.S. time, Biden’s chances of winning the presidency had decreased from 33.5% before the debate to 18%, with Trump maintaining his advantage at 63%.

Following the debate, trading volume for another contract, which speculated that Biden may withdraw from the race entirely, also surged dramatically. “Yes” shares rose from 19 to 44 cents in the following hours.

With each share paying out $1 (in the USDC stablecoin), if the prediction is accurate and zero otherwise, the 44-cent price represented a 44% chance that Biden would withdraw.

The odds were increased to 50% by an NBC report claiming that Biden would be spending the weekend at the Mount David Presidential Retreat with his family, discussing the direction of his campaign.

As of Monday morning U.S. time, those chances had leveled off slightly over 40% after the White House refuted stories over the weekend, claiming the trip was prearranged.

President Biden, for his part, is determined to finish the race.

“I saw the apprehension following the discussion. According to NPR, the President said, “I get it,” to a room full of fundraisers. “My night wasn’t perfect. However, I will put in more effort and need your help to finish.

The contract has drawn significant wagerers’ interest in politics, with most holders on both sides of the digital divide placing their bets on markets with a political theme.

The most prominent opponent of Trump, “the real Batman,” has $2.9 million in various political contracts and regularly wagers that Biden will secure the nomination, that Biden will prevail in the popular vote, and that Trump will not win the U.S. Presidential Election.

A $50,000 wager that the Eigen token, the native token for the Eigenlayer protocol, won’t become transferable before the release of former Binance CEO Changpeng “C.Z.” Zhao from prison is the lone deviation from Therealbatman’s primarily political portfolio.

Conversely, the biggest supporter of the “yes” side of the Biden drop-out contract, an unidentified individual identified only by their Ethereum wallet address, has a $184,000 interest in Biden’s outcome in addition to a $6,200 stake that Michelle Obama will have if she wins the Democratic nomination.

In addition, this user has a $9,700 wager, now trading at 2 cents, on longshot independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning the presidential race.