According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, political and economic considerations could lead to Bitcoin reaching $80K by Q4.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecasted in a memo to clients dated October 8, 2024, that Bitcoin may reach $80,000 by the end of the fourth quarter, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, the state of the economy, and the stability of the cryptocurrency market.
According to Hougan, the outcome of the following U.S. election, general economic trends, and the cryptocurrency market’s stability will all significantly impact this Bitcoin surge.
He further predicted that if the market mood kept getting better, Bitcoin would reach $100,000 soon after.
Bitwise CIO Says a Victory for Donald Trump Would Accelerate the Bitcoin Rally
Hougan underlined that the price of Bitcoin might rise dramatically if Republican nominee Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
He pointed out that many Americans saw the November 5 election as having two possible outcomes for the cryptocurrency market: a Trump victory might spur the price of Bitcoin upward, while a Democratic win—especially with Kamala Harris as vice president—might pose challenges for digital assets.
As possible obstacles, if the Democrats win, Hougan mentioned well-known individuals like U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has been outspoken in her criticism of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, well-known individuals, like Congressman Ritchie Torres, have backed the cryptocurrency sector.
Additionally, he cited remarks made by Representative Maxine Waters, who had previously attacked digital assets but had now admitted that “crypto is inevitable,” suggesting that the Democratic Party may be changing its mind.
Economic Factors and Cryptocurrency Pricing Stability
Matt Hougan next discussed economic considerations and stressed how important they were to the rise of Bitcoin.
The document claims that recent moves in the world economy, such as China’s implementation of a $284 billion fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates, have helped Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Hougan anticipates that by year’s end, the Fed will have lowered interest rates by an additional 50 basis points in addition to further assistance from China.
If these hold true, he thinks the conditions will be perfect for a Bitcoin surge. He did, however, issue a warning that market euphoria would wane if these expectations prove to be unfulfilled.
Hougan emphasized that significant disturbances in the cryptocurrency market, such as large-scale hacks, fresh legal actions, or an abrupt influx of previously locked money into circulation, are necessary for Bitcoin to surpass the $80,000 threshold.
The market’s stability will be crucial to Bitcoin’s future growth.
Matt Hougan Sees Growth in Altcoins as a Major Driver of the Bitcoin Rally
Hougan also mentioned altcoin expansion as a possible driver of Bitcoin’s rise.
Hougan clarified that while the long-term viability of Bitcoin is independent of the performance of other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana, a thriving altcoin market may encourage more people to support Bitcoin.
He claimed that solid momentum in the altcoin market frequently draws in new investors and creates enthusiasm, which can benefit Bitcoin.
This interplay is particularly significant during market turbulence, as a robust altcoin rally can bolster Bitcoin’s ascent toward higher price tiers.
Hougan is staying on his $80,000 estimate for Bitcoin. He thinks a stable political, economic, and market environment will pave the way for a big surge by the end of 2024.
