Cardano ETF approval odds reach 79% as SEC engages positively and institutional interest grows, despite ADA’s recent price swings.
The likelihood of a Cardano (ADA) ETF being approved in 2025 has climbed to 79%, the highest ever recorded on Polymarket. This increase reflects growing confidence among market participants in the potential approval of a Cardano ETF.
This upward trend in approval odds has been consistent over recent months, with probabilities steadily rising.
Rising Confidence in Cardano ETF Approval
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has reported a significant increase in the odds of a Cardano ETF being approved by 2025, currently standing at 79%, the highest since tracking began.
This heightened probability suggests that investors and analysts are increasingly optimistic about the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Cardano ETF in the near future.
Earlier this year, approval odds ranged between 60% and 70%, but they have steadily risen since May. This growing likelihood points to increased confidence in the cryptocurrency market and its regulatory environment. Bloomberg ETF analysts have also boosted the chances of SEC approval for several crypto ETFs, including those for XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano, to 90%.
SEC Discussions with Asset Managers Boost ADA ETF Prospects
The rising odds of Cardano ETF approval stem from positive regulatory signals and growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. Ongoing discussions between the SEC and various asset managers have made the approval of crypto ETFs, including Cardano’s, seem more feasible.
Bloomberg senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart note that positive interactions between SEC representatives and asset managers have bolstered confidence in an ETF approval.
Under new SEC chair Paul Atkins, the agency has shown a willingness to address regulatory challenges that previously delayed such approvals. As institutional interest in crypto assets grows, ETFs offer a way to invest in digital assets without direct ownership.
Cardano’s Market Sentiment Encounters Turbulence
Despite the positive outlook for a potential ETF approval, Cardano’s price and market sentiment have faced recent challenges.
Over the past few days, Cardano has experienced a sustained decline, with its price dropping by more than 1% at the time of writing. This marks the fifth consecutive bearish day for Cardano, driven by significant liquidations in the crypto market following the recent Israel-Iran conflict.
The decline in ADA’s price coincides with large investors, or Cardano whales, selling off substantial holdings amid the bearish market trend. According to Santiment data, investors holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA bought 230 million ADA last Monday but sold off their holdings by Wednesday. This rapid shift reflects uncertainty among major investors, particularly in light of recent developments in Cardano’s investment strategy and broader market trends.
