A defective update from CrowdStrike caused Windows computers worldwide to malfunction, resulting in a complete cessation of air traffic for numerous airlines
FlightAware reports that nearly 3,500 flights have been canceled globally as of the time of publication.
According to David Travis, a scientist who has conducted groundbreaking research on the impact of jets on the weather, the IT disruption may have an unexpected effect on the climate, potentially resulting in clearer skies and lower temperatures this evening. The impact will not be significant or enduring; however, it underscores the unexpected ways aviation can influence the climate. And how technology, specifically a software update, can initiate the cascade.
Contrails, the billowy patterns produced when jet engines release water vapor and pollution into the atmosphere, are frequently left behind by aircraft flying at high altitudes. Although the traces disperse rapidly, they leave behind wispy traces that resemble high-altitude cirrus clouds. In the daytime, these clouds reflect sunlight into space but can also capture the Earth’s heat in the lower atmosphere.
Generally, contrails contribute to an additional 1% to 2% of global warming by heating the Earth more than it chills. (Water vapor also contributes to the warming of the atmosphere, even though carbon dioxide and methane are the most frequently referenced greenhouse gases.)
The impact is so significant that Breakthrough Energy, the organization established by Bill Gates, has established a working group to resolve the issue. The group announced in May that it had partnered with ForeFlight, an aviation app startup that Boeing acquired in 2019.
This partnership ForeFlight trajectories that reduce the likelihood of contrail formation. In addition, Google collaborated with Breakthrough Energy to apply its AI models to historical data to anticipate circumstances that would increase contrails. According to Google, American Airlines tested the models throughout 70 flights, which led to a 54% reduction in contrails.
A pioneering study conducted in the aftermath of the 9/11 tragedy is the source of a significant portion of our knowledge regarding the climate impacts of contrails. Travis was a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater at the time, where he was researching the effects of contrails.
He encountered difficulty formulating definitive conclusions due to the absence of a simple method to observe the behavior of clouds in the absence of airplanes. There had not been a single day without a plane in the atmosphere since the inception of the jet age.
That was altered by the events of 9/11. Commercial air travel over the contiguous United States was suspended for three days. Like many of us, Travis was astonished by the events on the first day. However, the conclusion of September 12 occurred when he was returning from work and observed an unusual observation.
Travis stated to TechCrunch, “In the afternoon, I thought, ‘Wow, it’s still so clear out.'” “I paused, and I realized that, of course, there are no contrails.”
Travis and two other scientists gathered atmospheric data encompassing nearly 72 hours of jet-free skies in the lower 48 United States. The remarkable time capsule results provided a glimpse into the atmospheric and climatic conditions before the jet age. The difference between the nighttime low and daytime maximum temperatures increased by approximately 1 degree Celsius (approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit) without fewer high-altitude clouds. The days during the grounding were slightly warmer than before and after, while the nights were somewhat colder.
Since then, researchers have gained a more profound comprehension of the impact of contrails on the climate. Travis, the current president of Lake Superior State University, stated, “We have access to an abundance of data that is significantly greater than that of 20 years ago. As a result, we can identify areas where we anticipate that an airplane will generate a contrail that will not only endure but also disseminate and intersect, potentially generating a significant amount of cloud cover.”
The data is currently being utilized to inform initiatives such as the partnership between ForeFlight and Breakthrough Energy.
The CrowdStrike flaw has caused cancellations that underpass those that occurred following 9/11; however, they are still substantial enough to have a potential impact.
Travis stated, “We may observe a slight decrease in the number of high clouds, which could result in a slight increase in the temperature range between day and night for the duration of today and tonight, contingent upon the duration of this event.”