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Crypto Order Expectations: 36% Chance, 56% Bitcoin Reserve

Crypto Order Expectations: 36% Chance, 56% Bitcoin Reserve

Polymarket forecasts show pardons and crypto policies likely in Trump’s first 100 days, with uncertainty around Bitcoin reserves and executive crypto actions.

Compared to probable early pardons, polymarket forecasts show an unclear future for Trump’s crypto executive actions.

President-elect Donald Trump made numerous pledges to the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency communities during his presidential campaign. We examine which will materialize as he takes the oath of office for a second term later today.

After successfully selecting the US election winner, polymarket traders are now trying to forecast where he would carry out his pledges.

According to polymarket statistics, there are firm hopes for Ross Ulbricht and the January 6 defendants to be pardoned and potential support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Additionally, traders are monitoring whether an executive order on cryptocurrency will be issued on Day 1 and whether new tariffs will be placed on Canada or Mexico.

PredictionChanceVolume
Trump will create a Bitcoin Reserve in the first 100 days56%$2,598,422
Over 40 Executive Orders signed on Day 164%$536,229
January 6 protestors pardoned in first 100 days99%$7,952,113
Trump will save TikTok in first week92%$327,345
Trump will end the Ukraine war in the first 90 days34%$9,281,609
Trump will issue a crypto executive order on Day 136%$193,914
January 6 protestors pardoned on Day 192%$119,449
Trump will sign a national abortion ban20%$605,920
Gulf of Mexico renamed to “Gulf of America.”66%$73,021
25% tariff imposed on Mexico/Canada31%$448,663
Trump will acquire Greenland in 202520%$798,726
Trump will declassify JFK assassination files75%$512,872

Markets indicate that the most likely options are pardons and specific crypto policies. According to Polymarket, Trump’s first 100 days have a 99% chance of pardons for peaceful January 6 participants and a 92% chance of pardons on Day 1. In the first 100 days, Ross Ulbricht, whom Trump promised to liberate on day one, has an 83% chance of being granted mercy.

By the conclusion of the first week, there is also a 92% chance that TikTok will continue to operate even though previous laws have required its sale or ban. Over 40 executive orders on Day 1 are another high-chance situation, with a 64% evaluation rate.

Will Trump fulfill his pledges on cryptocurrency?

With nearly $2 million exchanged, cryptocurrency-related changes are among the traders’ top concerns despite their decreased likelihood. In the first 100 days, the probability of a strategic Bitcoin reserve is only 56%, while a Day 1 executive order on digital assets addresses de-banking and fair value accounting is 36%.

Declassifying the JFK assassination files (75%) by April 29 is more plausible than either crypto improvements. The idea of renaming the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America” is also more likely (66%) to occur.

Definite occurrences seem less definite. There is a 34% chance that the situation in Ukraine will be resolved in 90 days. Additionally, only 31% of Polymarket predicts that fresh 25% tariffs on Canada or Mexico will be implemented. The odds of a national abortion prohibition and a possible annexation of Greenland are 20% and 20%, respectively.

Pardons and numerous executive orders are examples of something that can happen quickly. Others, including changes in foreign policy or the acquisition of new territory, frequently need protracted negotiations.

In the end, traders on Polymarket seem more optimistic than ever about a pro-crypto government. Even though they don’t think significant reform will occur in the first 100 days, the mood is unquestionably better than during any prior administration.

Even if they don’t happen immediately, results might still appear later in Trump’s administration. Since polymarket data is subject to change, the probability could change if official declarations or initial acts indicate a different policy focus.

During the first week of a new term, executive activity can move quickly, so any early cues could affect how participants bet on each scenario. With polymarket data rushing on any breaking news, these markets provide a new channel for people interested in US politics and are becoming more valuable indicators of policy change.

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