According to the new Quantile model, there is a 5% probability of Bitcoin price reaching $1 million in 2025, increasing to 50% by 2034.
Bitcoin’s 2024 milestone elevated expectations from 2025.
Now, bolder and more extravagant price predictions are disseminated in the market.
Some boost crypto enthusiasts’ sentiments, and others spread the dread of a crash.
The prediction of the New Quantile model also provides a unique perspective on the Bitcoin price rally and when it will reach $1M.
Let’s discuss the findings.
Notably, Bitcoin Price Would Not Exceed $1 Million In 2025
According to numerous Bitcoin price predictions for 2025, this digital asset will surpass $1 million.
Nevertheless, the Quantile Bitcoin model disregards these predictions. According to its statistical forecast, the likelihood of $1M occurring this year is exceedingly low.
The findings acknowledge the BTC price performance and its exponential development, but they also raise concerns about the feasibility of this six-figure target.
Bitcoin’s compliance with power law trends is assessed through quantile regression analysis, which spans over a decade.
It implies that a significant bubble excursion is necessary to achieve a million targets.
More importantly, the BTC price must reach $1M in 2025 with a minimum of a 4σ standard deviation, as historical trends indicate that it only fluctuates between -1σ and +2σ.
“To reach $1 million in 2025 would require a bubble excursion of 1.0 in the log, a multiplicative factor of 10 from the present price, and in log terms that is 1/0.24, which is greater than four standard deviations (> 4 σ). Throughout Bitcoin’s price history, we have not seen this even once, nor have we seen 3 σ, and prices have stayed overwhelmingly in the range of -1 σ on the downside and +2 σ maximum on the upside.”
The Quantile discovery also confronts Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest perspective on Bitcoin. She asserts that the price may vary between $650,000 and $1.5 million, contingent upon the base and bull cases.
The quantile model’s statistical findings indicate varying timelines.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Timeline For $300,000, $1 million, $3 million, $10 million
According to a post on moneyordebt X, Bitcoin’s price volatility is decreasing, which is resulting in a greater degree of predictability.
The quasi-periodic bubbles are a significant factor in this.
It indicates the cycle peak followed by correction due to long-term power law trends. Interestingly, this occurs every four years, and the cycle has been set as 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, and 2029 are next.
In these years, BTC can create significant price milestones.
Quantile’s Bitcoin price prediction disclosed the timeline for this asset’s marking the major milestone.
According to this, there is a 50% chance BTC price might hit $300k in 2029, with two years of ambiguity range, a 50% chance of $1M happening in 2034 with two years of uncertainty age, $3M in 2039, and $10M after 2046.
Returning to Cathy Woods’s research, the Quantile statistics indicate that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $650,000 by 2030 is a mere 20%, and the probability of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030 is even lower (5%).
Nevertheless, there is a 50% likelihood that this will occur by 2034.
What Information Is Required?
The Quantile model’s predictions regarding Bitcoin prices are quite humorous, as they take into account historical trends, bubble excursions, and quantile regressions.
According to this, the Bitcoin will reach $300,000 in 2030 (plus or minus two years).
More importantly, the most anticipated $1M target will be attained in 2034 or within two years of that date, which challenges numerous current BTC price predictions that suggest this could occur in 2025.
The pi cycle indicator suggests that the BTC will reach its prime in September 2025.
Many analysts assert that a six-figure target can be attained this year, based on this and other analyses; however, the Quantile model contradicts this assertion.
Nevertheless, it also recognizes the potential for $300k if the bubble excursion exceeds 0.97 in quantile terms without bursting before the end of the year.
