As sentiment shifts, the likelihood of the XRP ETF being approved drops to 65%, and SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw is against crypto ETFs.
Caroline Crenshaw, an SEC commissioner, has persisted in her opposition to products traded on cryptocurrency exchanges.
With XRP ETF approval odds falling to 65% from previous highs of over 80–90%, this might have contributed to a decline in market mood.
SEC Commissioner Continues To Oppose Crypto ETFs
Thirteen internal votes concerning different cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) have been held by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) today.
These votes included updates on IBIT, BITB, GBTC, Bitwise’s BTC and ETH funds, and in-kind redemption methods.
All votes passed with a 3-1 outcome, SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw being the sole dissenting voice.
The sole Democrat on the Commission at the moment, Crenshaw, has continuously opposed the growing number of crypto ETF approvals.
Journalist Eleanor Terrett claims that her strong position sends “a clear message” that she is still adamantly opposed to cryptocurrency ETPs, including any shift toward an XRP ETF.
In-kind creations and redemptions for Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs were recently authorized by the SEC.
They are therefore comparable to ETPs based on commodities, such as those backed by gold.
Crenshaw’s rejection is in sharp contrast to the fact that this modification is viewed as a victory for the crypto ETF ecosystem.
SEC commissioner complaints imply that she would consistently block future votes about cryptocurrency, such as those involving proposed XRP ETFs.
Crenshaw’s criticism goes beyond ETFs. She recently attacked SEC staff guidelines on liquid staking, claiming it lacked practical foundation and was legally flimsy.
She claims the advisory “stacks factual assumptions” and does not give industry participants clear direction.
Furthermore, she also voiced strong opposition to recent staff guidance on USD-pegged stablecoins.
Crenshaw referred to the remark as “legally and factually flawed,” stating that it echoes marketing terms like “digital dollar,” which she believes dangerously mislead investors and distort the actual hazards of stablecoins.
Such remarks further heighten worries that, should Crenshaw’s influence or support inside the Commission increase, her presence may impede regulatory action regarding Ripple and the XRP ETF.
Polymarket’s XRP ETF Sentiment Volatility
Because of the declining market confidence, the chances of the XRP ETF being approved have changed.
From highs exceeding 90%, Polymarket data indicates a decline to 65% before reaching 71%.
CoinGape earlier revealed that after the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) launched successfully on NYSE Arca on July 18, the probability of the XRP ETF being approved climbed to 86%.
However, Crenshaw voted against the recent NYSE Arca filings at the most recent round of SEC votes.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas remains bullish despite this. He said that the SEC might approve altcoin ETPs, including XRP ETFs.
This optimism stems from XRP now satisfying the new SEC listing requirements, concentrating on coins that have engaged in derivatives trading for at least six months.
Furthermore, since Maxwell Stein, Director of Digital Assets at BlackRock, is scheduled to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 conference, there are suspicions that a BlackRock XRP ETF may be in the works.
Despite the growing strength of the crypto ETF base, Crenshaw’s steadfast rejection may still be an issue.
The following months could determine how much the SEC commissioner could influence approval decisions.