Trump in Jail Before Election Day

Nearly $900,000 in wagers have been cast by gamblers on the “Trump in jail before election day?” market via the prediction application Polymarket

Donald Trump has a 17% chance of being incarcerated before the November U.S. presidential election, according to the odds on predictions application Polymarket, as determined by cryptocurrency bettors.

Thursday, a jury in New York found Trump guilty on all 34 charges. He became the first former president convicted of falsifying business records in U.S. courts. The BBC reports that Trump pleaded not guilty and stated that he would “continue fighting until the end.”

According to data, purchasing and selling activity in the “Trump in jail before election day?” market increased on Friday. Since its inception in January, the market has received $900,000 in wagers from cryptocurrency users.

A market resolution of “Yes” is contingent upon Trump being detained in a jail or prison for a minimum of 48 consecutive hours from January 5 until 11:59 p.m. ET on November 5. Its alternative resolution is “No.”

As of the morning hours in Europe, the selling price for the odds “Yes” is 17 cents, while “No” is 85 cents. At the conclusion, the accurate result will be valued at $1. (“Due to market unpredictability and additional price factors, the sum may not equal 100 at Polymarket.”)
Reuters reports that the likelihood of Trump actually being incarcerated before the election remains remote.

Thursday marked a 2 percentage point decline in the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market on Polymarket, where the probability of Trump being elected president fell to 54%. The odds for President Joe Biden increased from 38% to 40%.