Matthew Sigel of VanEck warns Bitcoin-holding firms of risks as stock prices near NAV, urging pauses in equity sales and strategic reviews.
Matthew Sigel, a representative of VanEck, has expressed apprehension regarding the potential hazards associated with the Bitcoin accumulation strategy of public companies. Sigel cautions companies to reduce their Bitcoin acquisitions in the event of a decline in stock pricing.
VanEck Advises BTC Purchasing Companies to Reevaluate Their Strategies
Matthew Sigel, the Head of Crypto Research at VanEck, recently issued a warning regarding the Bitcoin accumulation strategy of public companies in a recent X post. Sigel warns that these organizations should discontinue their BTC strategies if their stock prices substantially decline.
Sigel urged platforms to reassess their strategies, stating, “That could involve a merger, spinoff, or sunset of the BTC strategy.” Additionally, he contended that a prominent organization is approaching a critical juncture. On X, he composed,
No public BTC treasury company has traded below its Bitcoin NAV for a sustained period. But at least one is now approaching parity. As some of these companies raise capital through large at-the-market (ATM) programs to buy BTC, a risk is emerging: If the stock trades at or near NAV, continued equity issuance can dilute rather than create value.
It is important to note that Sigel recommends that companies accumulating Bitcoin link executive compensation to the growth of net asset value per share rather than the extent of their Bitcoin holdings or share count. He underscores the significance of strategic flexibility during the period in which companies maintain the ability to make disciplined decisions. He stated, “Stakeholder dilution is no longer strategic once you are trading at NAV.” It is extractive.
Additionally, Sigel suggests that organizations implementing Bitcoin treasury strategies implement safeguards to reduce potential hazards.
- ATM issuance will be suspended: if the stock price falls below 0.95 times net asset value (NAV) for a protracted period, such as 10 or more trading days.
- Share buyback prioritization: If Bitcoin’s value experiences a significant increase, share buybacks may be prioritized even though the company’s stock price does not follow suit.
- Strategic review: In the event that the NAV discount continues, a review will be conducted to investigate potential options such as mergers, spinoffs, or the discontinuation of the Bitcoin strategy.
Semler’s Bitcoin Bet Fails, Causing a 45% Decrease in Stock Price
The VanEck Head disclosed in a subsequent thread that Semler Scientific, a medical technology company, is the organization that is “approaching parity.” Semler has been amassing Bitcoin since May 24, and he currently possesses 3,808 BTC, which is valued at $404.6 million. Semler is currently the 13th greatest BTC holder among public firms.
There is an increasing accumulation of Bitcoin by other prominent corporations, including Metaplanet and MicroStrategy. Metaplanet, a Japanese company, increased its total holdings to 10,000 BTC by adding 1,112 BTC earlier today. Michael Saylor’s Strategy has also hinted at its forthcoming Bitcoin acquisition, as its holdings amount to 582,000. These companies are at risk of experiencing elevated risks if their equities experience a decline, as per the statement of VanEck’s CEO.
Semler’s (SMLR) stock price has plummeted by approximately 45% this year, reverting to the levels it experienced when it first began accumulating Bitcoin, starkly contrasting Bitcoin’s unwavering ascent. Because of this, its market capitalization has decreased to approximately $434.7 million. According to reports, Semler’s market capitalization in relation to its Bitcoin holdings, as determined by its multiple of net asset value (mNAV), has decreased to approximately 0.821x, which is below 1x.
On June 13, 2025, Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) closed at $29.58, a decrease of $1.16 or 3.77% from its previous closing price. Nevertheless, the stock price increased by 4.19% to $30.82 during pre-market trading.