X Users Defy Exodus Predictions

X users defied expectations, staying loyal despite widespread predictions of a mass exodus

The discussion of an X “exodus” is escalating on Threads. At least anecdotally, individuals have observed a surge in new users and other online acquaintances transitioning from Elon Musk’s X to Meta’s Threads.

Some have even deactivated their X account in the process. However, the app store and website traffic data do not yet reflect any significant changes between the two platforms, even though users’ timelines are filled with this chatter and various hashtag trends, such as “Xodus” and “TwitterExodus,” which appear to indicate a significant shift in users from X to Threads over the past week.

Since its global introduction in July 2023, Threads, Meta’s version of a social network similar to Twitter with a diminished emphasis on politics, has experienced consistent growth.

The company announced earlier this month that its text-focused platform has reached a new milestone, surpassing 200 million monthly active users, a significant increase from the 150 million users it had in April 2024.

The X departure has been the subject of numerous active discussions on Threads this week, with hundreds of replies. Participants have discussed how their timelines have been flooded with posts from those who have recently departed X permanently.

In response to a discussion regarding the departure, @wanderscotwild_art, a Threads user, stated, “It certainly felt like a tsunami.” Another individual, @gazzaloz, expressed that this week “feels like a watershed.”

In addition, numerous other individuals expressed that they had migrated from Twitter/X to Threads or experienced a substantial increase in their following.

The alleged departure from the social network formerly known as Twitter is believed to be a result of Elon Musk, the owner of X, recently engaging in U.K. politics.

Musk reshared fake news that claimed U.K. rioters would be sent to detainment camps and made comments that suggested an “inevitable” civil war in the country, which sparked significant criticism.

That could have been the final obstacle for some who recently transitioned from X to Threads.

Nevertheless, we were unexpectedly unsuccessful in our efforts to ascertain the actual size of the departure, which is the subject of much discussion on Threads.

Numerous sources show Threads’ active users and app installations have not changed significantly. In certain instances, they even reported minimal growth for X.

Sensor Tower, an app intelligence provider, estimated that X’s average daily active users worldwide increased by 2% from July to August 2024, while Threads’ global daily active users remained “largely flat.” The firm also observed that global app installations on both X and Threads remained constant in August compared to July.

X and Threads, in particular, experienced a 2% and 3% increase in daily active users in the United States over the past month. X’s U.S. average daily app downloads in August were down by 13% compared to July, but Threads experienced a 14% increase. This could be a potential indicator of a shift. (However, this would not explain an “X exodus” driven by the United Kingdom.)

Similarweb, a website traffic provider, also investigated the X and Threads data in response to rumors of a change in political developments. However, it also returned without any evidence of such a change.

The company informed TechCrunch that both X and Threads were experiencing daily and weekly fluctuations in engagement that were within the typical range for both the web and mobile applications.

It was also discovered that the traffic on X.com’s website had increased by 1.4% week over week as of the beginning of this week, while Threads’ traffic had decreased by 1.5%.

We acknowledge that Similarweb may not be able to detect trends that occurred exclusively within the past few days.

Appfigures, an additional app intelligence provider, has not yet discovered evidence of an “X exodus.” The company informed TechCrunch that there was no “significant change or upward movement” in the data from last Friday to today.

Although these third-party estimates may be behind an actual shift in user engagement, which may be reflected in later data, it is also feasible that more individuals are discussing their recent departure from X on Threads because others are also doing so.

In addition, the engagement surrounding the topic may have caused Threads’ algorithm to emphasize these types of “quitting Twitter/X” posts in the app’s For You feed, resulting in a perception that even a minor change was significantly more significant than it was.

It is also possible that individuals who had previously registered for an account on Threads and downloaded the app have now decided to return to it after a period of absence, thereby including themselves in the exodus.

However, the data on app installs would not reflect their movements.

Meta declined to provide any recent metrics, instead referencing the 200 million monthly active users mentioned during the company’s most recent earnings.

Naturally, Threads is not the sole application that has recently competed for the attention of former Twitter users. X competes with decentralized networks such as Mastodon and Nostra and ventures such as Spoutible, Bluesky, and Spill.